You're right. The price of Bitcoin is climbing fast, but anyone who tries to treat this rally like any other Bitcoin rally is going to get wrecked. Anyone who tries to treat this upcoming halving-to-halving cycle like any previous cycle Is Going To Get Wrecked.
Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) took in 788.3 million dollars yesterday. That's not a total As Of yesterday. That's the total for yesterday alone. The day before, Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) took in 404.6 million dollars, and the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) took in 90.9 million dollars.
That's just 3 ETFs on a single day for each. Add in the rest of the ETFs that have launched since early January and the numbers are staggering.
ETFs have acquired 785,451 BTC as of March 5th. That's not even 8 weeks!
The supply shock that usually arrives six months after the halving is already here, and the halving hasn't happened yet, which means the supply is going to get even tighter once the halving chops 450 BTC a day, every day, off the incoming supply of new coins by cutting the block reward in half.
The supply shock is already here and the typical bull market levels of retail haven't even kicked in yet, and it's doubtful that the ETF hype has kicked in among the traditional market crowd.
Even at $100k, there won't be enough coins to meet demand.
I don't think most people are prepared for the avalanche of new money coming into Bitcoin.
This Time Is Different.
Actually, every cycle has been different. This one is just... differenter.
2012-2016 was the era of early adopters (not the earliest, but still very early).
2016-2020 was the era of early traders (not the earliest, but still very early).
2020-2024 was the era of early institutions (not the earliest, but still very early).
2024-2028 will be the era of the mainstream. Mainstream individual adoption and mainstream institutional investment.
2028-2032 will be the era of major advancements, though I wish they'd come sooner. Today's exchanges aren't able to handle current volume. Coinbase has crapped out multiple times this week. Today's hardware wallets are janky crap that's too confusing for mainstream adoption. I recommend Trezor as the easiest to use, but their hardware is junk, and Ledger is committing fraud by lying about what their hardware does!
2032-2036 (perhaps even through 2040?) will be the era of corporate raiders buying smaller companies to get their digital holdings, then spinning off the companies they bought because they only wanted their Bitcoin.
2040 and beyond will be when I'd expect cycles as we know them to come to an end, because mainstream users will be all-in, institutional investment will be all-in, and we'll be pricing things in satoshis, not BTC, because the price for 1 BTC will be more than a million dollars.
Each Era Has Been Different.
But this cycle... this era that we're about to enter... I think this will also be the era of anger as people who keep selling in order to "take profits" realize they sold themselves short. $2k profit selling at 69k is one hell of a loss when Bitcoin reaches $100k, $200k, $500k, or even $1M, but you have to see the big picture to understand that. I expect sellers to vent their remorse in the form of anger, inflicted on everyone who held.
This time is different.
— Posted on March 9th, 2024