As I type this, Bitcoin is down 50% from last year's high. We're down, but are we out? The man with a plan knows the answer is no.
Nights like tonight remind me of when I was in my 20s. I thought I was on top of the world, career wise. I was part of a small team that helped turn around a business that was owned by a huge conglomerate. We doubled revenue in a year. Corporate thanked us by cashing in. They fired us and sold it. Brutal.
A guy who worked for a competitor whose ass we'd just kicked (before getting sold and fired) reached out to me. I thought he was going to laugh, or even mock me. Instead, he was gracious. He let me vent my frustration, and then he offered me advice that stuck with me ever since.
He talked to me about Feast and Famine.
When times are good, you feast. Be cocky. Take risks. Play to win, and then play harder to dominate.
But when times are tough, you survive the famine by focussing all your energy on protecting what you've built.
That's solid advice, and it works in so many situations. It even works here.
Let's put it in perspective.
It was easy to cheer when we were over 65k and headed skyward. I don't remember what my highest buy was at, but I know it was at least 58k. It was easy to be gleeful then. Wheeee!!!
But what about now? What's the plan, man?
I'll tell you mine and I'm sticking to it without a shadow of a doubt: I buy and hold until the year after the next halving. I always say "the year after" because the halving causes a supply shock 4 to 6 months later, and that kicks off the bull run into the next year. So I plan forward. Everything I do is focussed on 2025. And come 2025, I'll start saying the exact same thing about 2029.
But that's me. That's MY plan. The question here is, what's yours? Do you have one?
If you don't have a plan, you should stop what you're doing right now and come up with one.
I believe the next two years are going to be rough. I also believe the next halving (in spring 2024) will lead to a supply shock that will lead to the next major bull run through 2025. But I also believe the bigger picture, long term, is that Bitcoin will become a major world asset if not a world reserve, and I believe other crypto currencies will blossom as well into other uses.
That's the future.
But we're the present, with Bitcoin down 50% from its high last year. Is this a time for doom and gloom? No. In fact, I'll say it again: HELL NO.
This is a time to protect what you've built, and if you're able, buy with an eye toward what's coming. If you believe in Bitcoin's future, as I do, the way forward is clear.
KEEP CALM
AND
HODL ON
When in doubt, wait it out, but along the way, you D.C.A.
That's my take. But what do I know? I'm just a guy who survived the post-2017 crash with my hodl intact. And I lost nothing in the flash crash of March 2020.
— Posted on May 7th, 2022